I would like to know if there are probabilistic flood models available that can accommodate the variable changes to structures and can tackle sudden weather fluctuations?

Published on by

I am working on building probabilistic flood prediction models which are essential because most of the standard flood modeling software available in the market are deterministic models. The existing models can simulate failure of structures (For eg. dykes / embankments) but the simulation does not account for the various probabilities with which these structures fail. Usually only a single parameter is taken into account for like water level while several others are to be considered in tandem. Therefore probabilistic models are aimed at solving this problem.

 

Taxonomy

9 Answers

  1. crowdsource challenges and solutions via the Marketplace

    You may find solutions to your challenge or even post this challenge and get solutions via an exclusive infrastructure community, the Marketplace of the Innovation Interchange https://www.innovationinterchange.com/products/marketplace

    When facing intractable challenges, owners and operators of infrastructure assets can find solutions from across the globe via the technology Marketplace. Register free online and connect with other organizations as you crowd source challenges and solutions.

  3. Hi All, Many thanks for all your replies.. Some reading to be done on my part.. I am happy to see that this is an area which is creating interest.. Once again thanks for the references !

  4. Hi, Avinash, It is an interesting idea that you have for probabilistic flood prediction. You can find a lot of literature relevant to your question and may help you for deeper knowledge toward it. I am not sure but I heard that Delft-FEWS software by Deltares which can accommodate probabilistic weather forecast to determine probabilistic flood forecast. And the software is free downloadable upon registration to Deltares site.

  5. Mike by DHI will probably respond to your needs

    Hi Please go and visit mike by dhi at www.dhigroup.com. Mike is a suite of modeling tools embedding most advanced knowledge in water flows. It also has the flexibility to include sudden weather changes as well as other water quality parameters or even ecological features.

  6. Have you heard about the HEC-FDA software?

    Hello Avinash,

    I came across the HEC-FDA software, although I have never used it. It uses Monte Carlo simulations for flood damage assessment. The model was developed to integrate RAS WSPs (WSP - waster surface profiles) with structure inventory data to produce stage-damage functions; basically to assign damage amounts to flood insurance studies. 

    This is the description given about the probabilistic methods employed in the model on its website :

    The software, 1) stores hydrologic and economic data necessary for an analysis, 2) provides tools to visualize data and results, 3) computes expected annual damage (EAD) and equivalent annual damages, 4) computes annual exceedance probability (AEP) and conditional non-exceedance probability as required for levee certification, and, 5) implements the risk analysis procedures. 

    Risk Analysis

    Risk analysis explicitly incorporates a description of uncertainty in discharge-frequency, stage-discharge, and 
    stage-damage relationships in the economic and performance analyses of alternative plans. The process uses Monte Carlo simulation, a statistical sampling-analysis method, to compute the expected value of damage and damage reduced, while explicitly accounting for the impact of uncertainty. Risk analysis thus provides an opportunity to make more informed decisions.

    In addition to providing more information for the assessment of flood risk management projects, risk analysis also produces an important collateral benefit: it focuses attention on the important issue of uncertainty inherent in hydrologic and economic computations. Because uncertainty in these computations propagates from uncertainty in the underlying data, methods, and assumptions, attention is eventually refocused on these sources. This attention should eventually lead to improvements in data collection and analysis methods, as more accurate (i.e., less uncertain) data sets, methods, and assumptions are developed to reduce the uncertainty contributed from that particular source.

    You can get more information at http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-fda/features.aspx

    Hope this helps.
     

     

  8. Research at Newcastle University

    Hello Avinash, I have been once to Newcastle University (UK) and I think you can contact some of the researchers who works there. They have very interesting research programmes related to what you are concerned. You can contact the professor Chris Kilsby http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceg/staff/profile/chris.kilsby or the professor Richard Dawson http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceg/staff/profile/richard.dawson. Hope I managed to help you. Cheers, Silvia

  9. Hello Avinash, I have been once to Newcastle University (UK) and I think you can contact some of the researchers who works there. They have very interesting research programmes related to what you are concerned. You can contact the professor Chris Kilsby http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceg/staff/profile/chris.kilsby or the professor Richard Dawson http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceg/staff/profile/richard.dawson. Hope I managed to help you. Cheers, Silvia